The Case For IBM

___IBM is one of the DOW 30 companies. It has a long history of excellence and innovation. I used the model 360 mainframe computer in 1968 while in graduate school at U. of Missouri. Two 360 mainframes controlled the thousands of transmitters and receivers of the phased-array radar where I was Senior Director in 1975. IBM became a leader in the PC world and made MS-DOS the standard OS when it licensed it from Microsoft's Bill Gates. It eventually sold its PC business to Chinese company Lenovo as the PC business has become a commodity business.

___IBM has had decreasing revenues as the high-technology world transitions to the global economy. Its most recent quarter, it reported revenue of $22.1B and net income of $4.5B. Profit for the year will be about $13.4B While most companies would be ecstatic with such results, IBM stock plumeted to $118. The stock had reached about $200/share in 2013.

___Like other multinational companies, IBM has left its foreign profits overseas instead of having them taxed a second time. IBM has been buying back its stock for years as its dividend yield has increased. It has been cheaper to borrow money than pay dividends – now about 4%. It has about $154B in Treasury stock. It also has about $141B in Retained Earnings and $9B in cash.

___IBM has an effort called “Strategic Initiatives” which is doing well and growing at an impressive rate. It has major competitors in Amazon, Google and Microsoft for cloud computing and other initiatives (like smart homes and smart cities). When the global downturn ends, there be much money to efficiently control the production and use of electricity and other power and energy sources. Waste and polution has been minimized in the United States using technology, and the same thing can be done in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and other nations.

Science versus science Fiction (junk science)

___I love science. The University of Missouri declared me a Master of Science in 1969. I have a real problem with junk science. I understand the pressure to publish for academics and to pay bills for everyone.

___The scientific method is 1) Experiment and gather data, 2) Form a hypothesis, 3) Test the hypothesis, 4) Peer test the hypothesis, 5) Theory, 6) Law.

___The “Big Bang” idea and the “evolution” idea are outside of science. There were no observations; testing of a hypothesis is not possible; and calling these theories is a scam. Theory has a scientific ring to it, but imagination and faith are involved here – not science.

___I worked as the DBA of the Weather Center in the now Savannah River National Lab at the Savannah River Site. Created to warn locals of how radioactive releases would spread, the Weather Center has collected about 60 years of quality, calibrated climate data. Two certified technicians calibrate the equipment twice yearly in rotation to ensure accuracy. The data comes from instruments on a dozen towers located throughout the 310 square mile Site and the 1000-ft TV tower in Beech Island.

___Junk science differs because data is never questioned for validity, or it is specifically selected to prove an hypothesis. Both practices degrade the integrity of true science. Consider a instrument measuring temperature which was once isolated in a field. The field is now asphalt and concrete and stores. The quality of the data has changed because the environment in which the data is taken has changed.

___Scientists so-called also make assumptions which make their task easier but may lead to false conclusions. In carbon dating, the ratio of C14 to C12 is carefully measured in the lab. The scientist does not know the ratio in the atmosphere or the decay rate 50,000 years ago, but it is convenient to assume that it was the same as in the air in the lab. This is the uniformitarian “theory.” It has been largely rejected, but it is used when convenient by junk scientists. How much C14 was originally present? Junk scientists assume that all carbon was originally C14 and that all C12 currently present is the result of radioactive decay of the original C14 according to the current decay rate.

___Climate “models” are mathematical representations of reality. Not all variables – like volcanic eruptions – are quantifiable, and computers may not be able to calculate results within the given time restraints. Estimates become quesses (SWAGs) rather than reality. Politicians take these and use them as a basis for policy.

___To those who revere science in the extreme, remember the Flat Earth Theory, the Geocentric Solar System Theory, medical science removing “bad blood” with leaches, “The Coming Ice Age” cover of Newsweek 1975, global warming causing 2005 hurricanes like Katrina and Rita and then causing few storms for the next years and then causing Sandy, etc. Some “scientists” have become modern day snake oil salesmen and confidence men!

Buy Low Now Sell High After Obama

___The power of POTUS is great, but he cannot keep the number 1 economy stagnant forever. His huge tax increase with PPACA, the thousands of new regulations, the progressive takeover of education, and disdain for our Constitution and what made us great have severely limited us for 7 years. But he will leave office 20 January 2017!

___Even with his disdain for carbon-based fuel the United States now has the largest reserves of oil and natural gas in the world. The stupid 1970s ban of American exports of oil is gone. We still import over 7 million barrels of oil each day, but it is much cheaper than over 10 million barrels of oil each day only years ago. Oil-funded welfare states are hurting!

___Americans will be shocked at how quickly the economy recovers when PPACA is repealed, harmful regulations are immediately paused, and over two trillion dollars of foreign profits are brought home to jump start the American economy. The corporate tax rate should be dramatically lowered (ideally to zero), and the tax system reformed to energize business. Consumption should be taxed and not income. The "progressive" amendments (along with Mark Levin's Liberty Amendments) should be repealed with an Article V convention of states.

Damage to National Security by Releasing Classified

Top Secret material would cause "exceptionally grave damage" to national security if made publicly available.

Secret material would cause "serious damage" to national security if made publicly available.

Confidential material would cause "damage" to national security if made publicly available.

___Those with access to classified information have "security clearances" generally granted after background investigations (BI) or Expanded BIs for higher level access. This process is very expensive, so security clearances are limited by "need to know." All Senators and Representatives in Congress have security clearances. It is sometimes hard to explain their votes to audiences because parts of the subject are classified. There must be trust of our representatives in a Constitutional republic. Those representatives betray that trust if material is classified to deceive Americans. The United States is not a "democracy" as some in government would have us believe.

Is it Unconstitutional to Block Muslim Refugees?

___The Constitution of the United States gives Congress power to make laws concerning immigration. The refugees are not citizens and do not have the rights of citizens. The President, who was an instructor on the Constitution, does not - or chooses not to - understand Constitutional citizenship. He has tried to define prisoners of war at GTMO as criminals who are due the legal protections of citizenship and our court system. Can you imagine a jury of their "peers" (jihadists) deciding their innocence!

___The true refugees are the "infidels", those who are persecuted because the have not become Muslims. Yet some are quick to say that we cannot place a "religious test" on which refugees we take. Really?!!! The 1st Amendment states that Congress shall make no law establishing a state religion or prohibiting the free exercise of Americans' religion. We do have a choice as to which aliens we allow into our country! Those allowed in should have exclusive allegiance to the United States and our Constitution.

___SC State Representative Bill Taylor has correctly suggested that our compassion be directed instead to the 50,000 homeless veterans who have suffered to keep us safe.

Tax Reform and The Flat Tax

___We talk a lot about tax reform, but nothing gets done. The reason is that Congress' power comes from giving credits, deductions and other "gifts" using the tax code. These are legal bribes to keep themselves in office.

___The problem with the flat tax, is 1) it is not really flat; 2) it keeps the income tax and the IRS; 3) Congress won't pass it. The flat tax most often proposed keeps the charitable giving and mortgage interest deductions, so it is not "flat." Americans will still have to keep years of data on income and expenses. The IRS will be necessary to catch cheats. There is always the danger that the IRS will be used as a partisan weapon to punish those who disagree with the current administration's ideology. Stalin murdered tens of millions in order to consolidate his political power. The IRS assault on conservatives is a smaller example of the same thinking. Congress likes power. Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely!

___The fair tax has been studied for decades. Two books have been written to answer its' critics. It is a non-regressive consumption tax which would be collected alongside the sales taxes. Step one is the repeal of the 16th Amendment. Taxes will be more obvious. We will pay them whenever we shop rather than on payday, quarterly or by 15 April. The fair tax replaces payroll, FICA and other taxes, so the paychecks of most people will be significantly higher. There is no tax on used goods, so the flea market industry will flourish.

___People do not like taxes. They try to minimize their tax by minimizing the thing taxed (income). It is far better to minimize consumption - particularly with obesity as a major problem.

Long-Term Unemployed in the United States Unchanged

___The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 2.1 million in November and has shown little movement since June. In November, these individuals accounted for 25.7 percent of the unemployed.

___The civilian labor force participation rate, at 62.5 percent, changed little in November. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 59.3 percent and has shown little movement since October 2014.

___The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 319,000 to 6.1 million in November, following declines in September and October. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. Over the past 12 months, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons is down by 765,000.

___In November, 1.7 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 392,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.